Happy Holidays to The Geo Factor readers!

This time of year analysts decide they have to jump on the bandwagon, get out their crystal balls, and predict what is likely to occur in the upcoming year. My 2007 predictions for the geospatial market? I don’t have any. Not because I am without brains or even the inclination to pontificate. However, I have a problem with the fact that almost all analysts MAKE predictions but few go back at the end of the year REVIEW their predictions for accuracy. My employer RFG does review its previous year’s predictions and is one of the only analyst firms with the guts to do so. While I contribute to the predictions at RFG, I am frankly uncomfortable with the whole annual exercise.

Here’s the root of the problem with predictions. First, making predictions is a no-win scenario for analysts. This is because there are only two possible outcomes: the analyst is right or the analyst is wrong. If the analyst is wrong, then in hindsight they were, well, wrong. No value there. If the analyst is correct, then that’s great but oftentimes the prediction is mostly obvious or it is already happening. Of course it is possible the analyst makes an educated prediction based on industry insight, and this sometimes happens. However, there is ample evidence that analyst predictions are usually wrong. If you really need to read some predictions anyway, you can read about Gartner’s 10 Key Predictions for 2007 here.

Also, making predictions is one of the most difficult things for an analyst to do well. Technology changes so rapidly, predicting the events of the next year becomes no more than educated speculation. Easier to foresee are potential company moves – acquisitions, partnerships, or product announcements. However, personnel predictions are fraught with uncertainty.

Finally, most of the analysts in the IT world know little about location or geospatial applications. Yet they will talk anyway about it, with the largest analyst firm recently publicly saying that Google Maps provides 90% of the functionality of the more sophisticated geographic information systems. This is, of course, patently absurd.

So while The Geo Factor will not provide 2007 predictions for the geospatial market, there is value in setting forth desired outcomes:

1. Improved awareness amongst business people of the importance of location.

2. Wider sharing of data and usage of evolving standards.

3. Ease-of-use improvements to the more complex solutions.

4. More features in the simplistic Web-based tools.

5. Clear understanding that the ubiquitous Web-based consumer mapping tools do not come close to the functionality of the more sophisticated location intelligence or GIS systems.

6. Increasing conversation between providers, practitioners, and observers.